Curse

Brknkybrd · Nov 30, 2005, 01:52 AM // 01:52

I was thinking today how ANet makes money off of Guild Wars, and it's clear, while we are still in the pre-Chapter 2 waiting game, that Guild Wars has but one way to make money for its company -- new players. To survive at all, there must be a constant influx of players, each giving up a mere $50 US to play.

Let's assume, in the time before Chapter 2, Guild Wars racks up a total of 1.5 million players (it’s over 1 million now, and growing -- 1.5 is probably conservative). Okay, so that's 75 million big ones for ANet, which has to pay the programmers, fund server repair and maintenance, pay for the promotional ads that get people into the game, and various other expenses. Let's compare this to World of Warcraft or City of Heroes.

Each of the pay-per-month RPGs has about the same cost -- about $15 US per month, with the initial cost of $30 to buy the game. If there are 1 million consistent players (not sure if this is conservative or not), that would mean around $210 million per year. The companies for these games do not need nearly as many new players coming in, as they can continue to profit by supporting their fanbase.

To keep their game going and the profits coming in, ANet must constantly attract new players. From a business standpoint, supporting the fanbase is secondary -- I hate to say this, but heck, ANet barely needs to support the fans at all, they just need to get them in the door with their $50. Of course, they do support the players because they want them to pay for the next chapter -- each unsatisfied player could mean one less buyer for Chapter 2.

As more players flood Guild Wars, as Accurax noted in two great articles about in-game economy, things get progressively worse for newbie players. New players can't afford the best stuff that the older players are hoarding; runes, max weapons, etc, get too expensive. Support for players in the game seems to be limited to nerfing farming and balance changes, with the very occasional new area added or special event.

I wonder if this is because ANet cannot afford to give the same kind of support that the pay-per-month games get. I also wonder why ANet is so keen on 'nerfing' farming, to the point that stopping players from doing that seems to take priority over any other kind of update or support. This game has several fun-killing problems, like the lack of trading house, districts and a favor system that fragments the community, and a pretty horrible economy that has sent many people to eBay just to get a decent amount of gold (no, I am not condoning this). I'm sure you have your own list of problems, especially if you are a seasoned veteran of online gaming.

What the game may need is a way to make money for its company without having to rely solely on getting new players. With so many new players coming in, a lot of ANet's time and money is going to be spent getting their systems to handle the load of players, and making sure these new players aren't bots or macros. A great influx of players ultimately means less time will be spent giving current players good updates.

Of course new players are good for the game, but there will come a point in the future when the game has attracted all the players it can. Chapter 2, of course, will ensure that a large portion of current players will pay more money for the game, and the players who buy it will likely be at least somewhat satisfied by the new support it will offer. But what about beyond?

My idea: More frequent content additions, even if they cost a bit of money. Imagine if, say, every 3 months, a small, optional expansion were released (say, a bit larger than Sorrow's Furnace), costing around $10. Each expansion brings with it major fixes and new features to the gameplay -- you get the fixes whether you buy the expansion or not, but you have to pay to access the new areas and monsters.

Then, every 6 months, a new chapter or something major that costs $50. Each player who wants all the new stuff pays about $120 per year for the game. GW remains far cheaper than WoW or CoH, and ANet increases their profit.

Why am I suggesting that Guild Wars be slightly more expensive? Simple, I want support. More support, more game-enhancing features, more often, and better -- and I'm willing to pay for it. But I'm not willing to pay as much as I would for WoW or CoH -- those games are too expensive, and their support isn't that great.

Instead of being the "MMORPG with no subscription fee", Guild Wars could become "the MMORPG that's a heck of a lot cheaper than most". Not as catchy, but hey, I think it would work.

Struth · Nov 30, 2005, 02:05 AM // 02:05

To the doom corner!

When you talk about charging money when it has no fee (other than buying it), you open a whole new can of worms!
Low bandwidth = cheaper cost of maintance = why GW has lots of players, also why each player has "thier own copy of the Map" So if your like me, in game: All alone on the map with henchmen, cursing at them and calling them stupid when your dead, youll get that lovely message "No One Hears You!"

darkdragon99 · Nov 30, 2005, 02:23 AM // 02:23

alot of ppl who got guild wars did so because the no sub i for one can't afford to pay such things you know not eveyone gets payed 20 bucks an hour or was born rich

Brknkybrd · Nov 30, 2005, 02:28 AM // 02:28

Guild Wars isn't and has never been free. It doesn't have a subscription fee. A subtle difference exists between "free" and "no subscription fee". It costs you money to start the game, and it will cost you more money if you want to buy the expansion.

I'm simply suggesting ways players can pay just a little bit more, but get more for their money.

Loviatar · Nov 30, 2005, 02:35 AM // 02:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brknkybrd

I
Instead of being the "MMORPG with no subscription fee", Guild Wars could become "the MMORPG that's a heck of a lot cheaper than most". Not as catchy, but hey, I think it would work.

GUILDWARS IS NOT

NEVER HAS BEEN

NOR WILL BE

ADVERTISED AS BY ANET
SOLD AS BY ANET

AN MMORPG

IT COSTS LESS TO RUN BECAUSE IT IS NOT AN MMORPG

DID I MENTION IF YOU GO TO THE ANET GUILDWARS SITE THEY SAY IT IS NOT AN MMORPG?

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP CALLING IT THAT WHEN THEY KEEP SAYING IT IS NOT AN MMORPG?

darkdragon99 · Nov 30, 2005, 02:37 AM // 02:37

i'm sure ANet makes alot of money off of guild wars and off all the rest of their games. i'm sure we would hear about it if they were strapt for cash.

actionjack · Nov 30, 2005, 02:47 AM // 02:47

Yes on the need for more constant update of content. I feel that the new contents are 2-3 month over due, and players are just beating the same tire old horse now, with signs of more and more player leaving(?).

A.net is getting lazzzzzzzzzzy.... STOP rolling around in your pill of cash!

twicky_kid · Nov 30, 2005, 03:01 AM // 03:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjack

Yes on the need for more constant update of content. I feel that the new contents are 2-3 month over due, and players are just beating the same tire old horse now, with signs of more and more player leaving(?).

A.net is getting lazzzzzzzzzzy.... STOP rolling around in your pill of cash!

simply stop playing the game. i think anyone that has played the game for any given amount of time would agree that you got more than $50 out of the game.

its not ment to be played ALL THE TIME. play it occasionally. play it at scheduled times with your guild.

if you are beating a dead horse its time to move on.

MoldyRiceFrenzy · Nov 30, 2005, 06:22 AM // 06:22

Intersting im sorta confused though...and by lovioator or whatever... i thought it did mention it was a mmorpg, but just not a standard one or something??? so confused.

Tactical-Dillusions · Nov 30, 2005, 12:25 PM // 12:25

I'm sure Anet have a management team for the game, it's future and it's financial position.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brknkybrd

Of course new players are good for the game, but there will come a point in the future when the game has attracted all the players it can.

There are alot of people in the world and the last time i checked, they are all ageing, buying PC's and picking up copies of Guild Wars.
Saying that there will be no more customers at a point in the future is like saying a countries population will stop increasing. It may slow but will certainly never stop selling.

Also, don't forget the massive release into the Far East, notably China...which i might add, has the largest population of any country on Earth with a booming economy too!

Infact, i might start to teach myself a little basic Chinese.

Mordakai · Nov 30, 2005, 05:00 PM // 17:00

To the OP:

Obviously, Anet has thought about this. They believe they can survive on 6 month expansions alone. Perhaps, if your theory is correct, and people start leaving GW, then they'll need to change their business plan.

But if that happens, I think 3 month updates for $10 will simply drive more people away.

But this is all conjecture. We have yet to even see how the market reacts to Chapter 2! Let's see the numbers on that before we start predicting the death of Guild Wars...

AncientPC · Nov 30, 2005, 10:40 PM // 22:40

I see plenty of non-MMORPG / CCORPG games with free online play surviving (Blizzard line, etc). Why is it impossible for GW to do the same thing?

Kool Pajamas · Dec 01, 2005, 12:25 AM // 00:25

Erm....Not all of that $50 you paid goes to Anet you know. Some goes to EB or Best Buy or wherever you bought it. So they have even less than you think.

darkdragon99 · Dec 01, 2005, 12:35 AM // 00:35

not when alot of them are bought strait from the guild wars website the hole lot goes to them for those

Loviatar · Dec 01, 2005, 12:46 AM // 00:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoldyRiceFrenzy

Intersting im sorta confused though...and by lovioator or whatever... i thought it did mention it was a mmorpg, but just not a standard one or something??? so confused.

hi

from Anet website

Quote:

Rather than labeling Guild Wars an MMORPG, we prefer to call it a CORPG (Competitive Online Role-Playing Game).

Crystaldragonboy · Dec 02, 2005, 05:40 AM // 05:40

I think there is some truth to the OP. The likelyhood is that sales will eventually plateau, and I also think that this is likely to happen quickly in comparison to WoW or similar games. I love GW, but to be honest, I think the mistake in their marketing strategy is in labelling it as a CORPG. The game is, of course, called guild wars, and by that alone it is compettitive, but so far (and I'm not much of a PvP'er, so maybe I'm way off base) it doesn't seem to me that there is a whole lot of benefit to PvP/GvG. What's the reward other than fame? If there's no tangible reward, it's just masturbation. For that matter, there seems little tangible reward in joinning a guild. Sure you get help, but there's little to do otherwise.

I've been playing about 2 months now and, even so, I have a lot of trouble aquiring worthwhile items. Gold, for that matter seems scarce for me. I had my guild leader run my first character through ascension, but now that's done, I have become slightly disenchanted with the game. No more benefit to leveling when you don't recieve any more attribute points. Skill points are ok, but if you can't afford to buy the skills... what then?

An RPG is supposed to be story-driven, but there doesn't seem to be that strong of a story in GW. I haven't even bothered with much of the missions that follow story, especially when I don't have the background knowledge. Having events kind of sucks because then everyone is in the same place at once, and servers get bogged down, etc. But having static missions kind of sucks too because nothing changes and the game gets boring until the expansion is released: masturbation again.

A subscription fee won't really solve anything though. GW already has pretty good support. It's new content that's the problem. I don't think that ANET doesn't have the money... I think they just are somewhat limited by lack of story. Most games have kind of a cheez-tastic story because it's basically programmers writing the story and dialouge. Having taken a very thorough scriptwriting and advertising course in college, I can tell that game writing doesn't go through nearly the same rigors as TV or film writing, and perhaps that's the problem.

Without a more serious approach to the writing, the game is likely to remain fairly static. Granted, not everyone is into Final Fantasy or the later Jak games (for the PS2), but those games are far more interesting to me because of the constantly developing storyline. For instance: in the first Jak and Daxter game, things were kind of crap. I played it 'cause my girlfriend (now my fiancee) liked it, but that was it. 'Bout the only game I could play WITH her. There was a constantly developing storyline, but Jak (main character) never talked, and he looked kind of mentally disabled: was hard for me to get into. Second game rolls around, and Jak goes crazy badass on everyone. My fiancee got more involved in that one even 'cause storyline got way more advanced. Third game comes around, and the both of us are already hooked, so of course we get it. Jak kicks even more ass, and story is now way deep. Heavy political intrigue (which was great for me 'cause I was primarily a political science major, and great for her 'cause she was a history major), and even a revolution by the hardened outcasts of society (Jak among them). The newest installment, Jak X: combat racing, is a must-have for me, despite the change in gameplay, simply because of the continuation of an excellent storyline.

So, IMO, storyline of GW needs a review and revamp. That is what will get more people to play, and more people to stay.

Hell Marauder · Dec 02, 2005, 06:08 AM // 06:08

Problem of GW is the loss of initial momentum, because anet is unable to get chap 2 out within 6 to 8 months of initial release. Instead of getting new content out as soon as possible, it's busy itself in "balancing" things that could've been left alone. It won't do ANET any good in the long run, if GW is perceived as a game to "exclude" certain types of players, while its competitors like WOW is doing things to attract diverse player base. Just my 2 cents.

IMehler · Dec 02, 2005, 12:13 PM // 12:13

Well i think Anet has done pretty well. The game has a good balance between entertainment and addiction. Most pay RPG games are often a danger to lots of persons. I am speaking of the addiction. E . x. reaching Level 20 or Level 60 is a big difference. You can reach level 20 in a few days. And can finish the main mission in 1 week. After you have done that you loose your addiction and now can play more relaxed. Making side quests or go farming.

I think this is the right way, how an online RPG should be. Not too addicting and very friendly for casual players.

Back to the topic:

I dont think ANet has any financial problems. Since GW is in much countiers at the Top 10 best seller lists.

More new players dont have to mean less quality. Since often when you play in Europe on working days in the morning, noone is here. So there is much room for more players. At least in Europe.

Since i made a few days ago my third charakter and therefore had to play with these newbies, i dont think there is any loose of quality. Neither in playing nor in the behaviour. It just works fine.

Numa Pompilius · Dec 02, 2005, 12:48 PM // 12:48

IMO what the OP proves isn't that GW isn't profitable - I'd say it's already paid its development and the upkeep is miniscule in comparison - but that the "pay-to-play" model used by WoW and EQ2 is vastly MORE profitable than GW's "pay-to-enter" model.

WoW likely cost somewhat more to develop than GW, although probably less than double, and is definitely more costly to maintain, but:

* The cost to purchase of the games was the same (WoW has dropped in price now, to entice more people to join), and WoW outsold GW by a factor of 3-5. That is, the revenue from sales alone will have covered WoW's development and probably also maintenance cost for many years. It may even have been enough to completely cover the development costs of WoW2.

* The $15 each of the 1-2 million active WoW accounts pay PER MONTH, is pure profit. That is, every month WoW subscription fees alone return a profit comparable in size to the total profit from GW.

In short, it isn't so that WoW is just getting by covering its costs, and GW turning a loss, IMO the situation is that GW is turning a decent profit, but WoW has pure gold streaming out of every orifice.

However, comparing GW to WoW may be unfair.
WoW is a phenomenon, and one, I admit, I do not understand. The game is ugly, by all accounts it's a grind, the cost of playing for one year is in the region of $220, and yet it's a huge, massive, gigantonormous, runaway success. At least outside asia there is no MMORPG even remotely as successful as WoW.
Hence it might be more relevant to compare the profitability of GW to that of, say, Everquest2.

Unfortunately I have no idea how many units EQ2 has sold, or how many active accounts there are.

Kakumei · Dec 02, 2005, 12:57 PM // 12:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crystaldragonboy

I love GW, but to be honest, I think the mistake in their marketing strategy is in labelling it as a CORPG. The game is, of course, called guild wars, and by that alone it is compettitive, but so far (and I'm not much of a PvP'er, so maybe I'm way off base) it doesn't seem to me that there is a whole lot of benefit to PvP/GvG. What's the reward other than fame? If there's no tangible reward, it's just masturbation.

What 'tangible' reward is there for PVE? What 'tangible' reward is there for playing the game at all?

Don't be dumb.